Firmly optimistic about the rare earth aluminum for change and new energy lithium cobalt magnets
Without fear of adjustment, the aluminum plate will be revalued with a firm view of the implementation of the reform policy of electrolytic aluminum. Last week, Shandong province development and Reform Commission issued the "2017 Shandong province coal consumption reduction alternative work programme of action", which requires to complete the electrolytic aluminum capacity to clean up illegal, and publicity Weiqiao group and letter group illegal production capacity was 2 million 680 thousand tons and 530 thousand tons, the total scale exceeded market expectations, marking the China electrolytic aluminum for breakthrough progress. In August 10th, Henan approved five electrolytic aluminum production capacity replacement indicators, the total production capacity of 207 thousand tons, and jointly transferred to an enterprise in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia. This indicates that the national idle capacity index replacement is in progress. The back plate, the main plate is soaring and do not want to change the policy for the lead prices statement brings, but considering the change for electrolytic aluminum just promoted, and the main legal, the market can not be shaken, we continue to firmly optimistic about the change of electrolytic aluminum for implementation of the policy is expected, illegal production capacity will continue to implement the shut down in the second half of the year, and then superimposed 2+26 heating season environmental protection production, aluminum and aluminum imperative fundamentals reversed sector valuations revaluation. Focus on Shenhuo shares, Yunlvgufen, Chinese aluminum, Zhongfu industry, Nanshan aluminum, Jiaozuo Wanfang standard.
Rare earth anti normalization continue to be optimistic about the rare earth sector very fruitful, revaluation. Since the beginning of this year, the price of rare earth has risen significantly, and the increase of praseodymium, neodymium oxide and terbium oxide is nearly 50%. This is mainly due to the actual landing of many policies, such as the reform of the rare earth supply side since 2016, and so on. One is in the take a small number of strategies, obvious effect, the pricing mechanism also appeared positive changes, cultivate good price expectations; two is a rare earth from hitting movement gradually to normal, the planning system transformation; three is the verification of environmental protection continue to suppress the output. At the same time, the marginal effect on demand driven by the demand side new energy vehicle is increasing gradually, and the current inventory level is low. Short term price rise is still continuing, in the long term, hitting the "normalization" is expected to greatly alleviate Black Rare Earth, in favor of the industry fundamentals reversed. Focus on northern Xiamen tungsten, rare earth, Sheng and resources, rising colored, advanced technology etc..
The rare earth permanent magnet will become the third big wind gate which is driven by the new energy after lithium and cobalt. Is a rare earth praseodymium and neodymium terbium, the price is expected to continue to moderate upward, mainly due to the rare earth has very fruitful, and steadily for the better magnetic demand. This makes the NdFeB magnets have significant increase since the beginning of June, due to the high-end NdFeB magnets have a certain degree of monopoly (industry oligopoly, downstream customers is highly viscous), gross margin has the characteristics of pricing, not only can get the cost of upgrading the stock continued revaluation, can achieve transfer completely, but also can have a certain the excess profits. Two is the new energy vehicles synchronous motor magnetic order driven, product structure of automobile orders three rings, sea magnets accounted for, will not only benefit from Tesla's direct order (such as three rings), and will benefit from more traditional international manufacturers of automobile steering electric springtide, due to its characteristics of customization, and customer development, customer stickiness strong, high trade barriers. Third, sea magnets, etc. Ningbo Yunsheng biaoke focus in.
Continue to look bright banner of cobalt plate. Recently, Tesla announced that a Italy car owners to complete the single charge driving 1000 km challenge, Tesla CEO musk clear Model3 production plan, is expected to further demand in the future with the Tesla Model3 production standards will lead to cobalt, lithium resources, at the same time the Tesla catfish effect will promote various well-known enterprises to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles, required for production battery related enterprises, will significantly benefit cobalt lithium resources. We are reassessed for cobalt with supply and demand balance after we still maintain the 2017-2019 supply and demand will continue to maintain a tight balance point of view, combined with the previous inventory to ease supply pressure, the supply of high concentration of small metal with inventory adjustment is easy to control, easy to strengthen self consistent expectations after the formation of characteristics, on this basis, Luoyang molybdenum industry we continue to suggest that attention to cobalt plate Huayou cobalt industry, Hanrui cobalt industry, Grammy, Dow technology target.
Lithium: the price center is expected to continue to rise, and the capital operation ability and power of the related leading companies are strong. 1) the global lithium supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance for 2017-2018 years. 2) lithium price is expected to continue to remain strong, optimistic about the upper lithium carbonate company, but its valuation elasticity is limited. Since 2017, the price of lithium continues to maintain high, and it has risen by 5% since June, and the supply and demand in the first half of the year is tightly balanced. After taking into account the June Australian ore gradually peatlands, but delay smelting, processing of digestion of lithium, the supply side is still expected to maintain a tight state, and the demand is expected to usher in a marginal improvement, lithium price is expected to continue to maintain a strong. It is suggested that the lithium industry of Tianqi and Gan Feng should be paid attention to.
Pay attention to the reevaluation of basic metal white horses, and the big turning point of copper has arrived. In the short term, the basic metal prices maintain high shock, the basic metal white horse historical burden has been gradually digested, in 2017, the performance of the reported rate has been better.
The medium term, the United States Trump landing, the fourth quarter of fiscal stimulus to solve the debt ceiling is a high probability event, which will bring a boost for overseas fundamentals is expected, the Fed rate hike, shrink the table reflect more fully, and further confirms the overseas economic growth was solid; domestic real estate to the library makes the real estate investment growth over nineteen of stability logic gradually clear, and the four quarter replenishment needs activation, domestic and international economic growth logic will be gradually realized. At the same time taking into account the supply side, the supply side reform of electrolytic aluminum in the four quarter, the probability of implementing the system of copper supply growth rate down, big inflection point has to zinc supply and demand rebound is still tight, once the logic that is likely to occur, the price of a decent rebound. Recommendations concern related to the leading subject of the kemler Whitehorse, followed by aluminum (aluminum for the implementation of China, Shenhuo shares represent the general trend, focus on aluminum, copper (Yunlvgufen), Jiangxi copper, Yunnan copper, Luoyang molybdenum industry, Tongling nonferrous metals), zinc (Tibet, Mount Everest, south of the Five Ridges Chihong gold).
Continue to pay attention to aluminum processing white horse. In recent years, we have studied the aluminum processing industry in depth, and the demand for aluminum processing is strong, and the capacity is continuously released. Baima company has a clear trend towards high-end high-end processing, and has great potential in volume and price, and its valuation is at a relatively low level in history, which deserves attention. Examine the growth trajectory and the price of aluminum processing enterprises, we believe that the five dimensions of aluminum processing stock investment value, one is the expansion of the growth plan, two is climbing production schedule, three is the expansion direction is consistent with industry trends, four order matching is complete, five is the level of valuation is reasonable. Combined with the above factors, it is suggested to pay attention to the Ming Thai aluminum industry, Asia Pacific Technology, Nanshan aluminum industry, Li Yuan refining and silver state shares.
N basic metals are generally rising. The CPI and PPI data released last week remained basically stable. The US PPI index in July showed a poor performance. In addition, the international geopolitical crisis was further fermented, and the risk aversion was warming. All the other basic metals except aluminum and nickel were postponed. Shanghai aluminum prices continue to strong, mainly due to China's macro bridge production reduction over expected, continue to benefit the aluminum price upward, it is expected that the turning point of the fundamentals will also gradually arrive, aluminum stocks are expected to decline.
N gold rose by 2.4% and silver rose by 4.9%. Precious metals rose last week, the U.S. PPI index after a decline for the first time in August 2016, South Korea and the United States the escalation of geopolitical crisis, the ECB may release information in September adjusted QE and other factors, the market hedging atmosphere increased, gold and other safe haven assets received sought.
Focus on new energy lithium, cobalt, magnetic material and other related subject, pay attention to the aluminum processing Whitehorse, electrolytic aluminum modified for attention. Cobalt plate recommendations concern industry, Luoyang Huayou cobalt molybdenum industry, Hanrui cobalt industry, lithium plate recommendations concern the Grammy; Tian Qi Li industry, Gan Feng Li, Accor Group, Youngy shares etc.. Magnetic plate recommendations concern sea magnets, three rings, Ningbo Yunsheng, the Milky Way magnet. Aluminum processing white horse focus on the Ming Thai aluminum industry, Asia Pacific Science and technology, Silver State shares, Nanshan aluminum, Li Yuan refining and so on. The environmental protection industry and for aluminum production is expected to strongly suggest that attention to Chinese aluminum, Yunlvgufen, Shenhuo shares, Zhongfu and Nanshan aluminum etc..